TECHnalysis Research Blog Extra

April 14, 2017
PC Market Outlook Improving

By Bob O'Donnell

While we’re still far from a significant rebound, the latest quarterly PC shipment numbers released by research firms IDC and Gartner this week suggest that the market continues to move in a more positive direction. The IDC numbers showed the first year-over-year PC shipment increase in about five years, though it was a very modest sub 1%. The Gartner numbers, on the other hand, continued to show declines, but at a slower pace. (The differences in results stem from how and what the firms count—IDC includes Chromebooks, but not 2-in-1s, while Gartner does the opposite.)

Even if you average the two out to a slightly negative number, the general tone around PCs has been improving of late, particularly for commercial devices. In fact, both IDC and Gartner highlighted the positive impact that Windows 10 is having on commercial PC shipments. Though the hardware requirements for Windows 10 aren’t really significantly different from Windows 7 (or 8), many organizations are using the Windows 10 transition as an excuse to invest in new PCs.

Part of the reason is likely due to other hardware enhancements, particularly around design, that have started to impact the PC market. After years of promises, most all of the PC vendors are now offering the kinds of impressive designs that we were promised many years ago, but have only recently arrived.

Looking at the market details, consumer PCs continue to struggle according to both firms. There are some interesting new designs expected to come alongside the new Windows 10 Creator’s Edition, however, and they could renew consumer interest later in the year. One thing that’s clear is that the trajectory and outlook differences between PCs and tablets continues to increase, with tablets still showing large declines, while PCs are moving closer to flat. It’s now clearly safe to say that the idea of tablets ever taking over PCs is officially dead.

From a market share perspective, the news from the two research firms was mixed, with IDC reporting that HP had taken over the worldwide market share lead, but Gartner showing that Lenovo continued to hold onto the number one spot. The two will likely remain neck-and-neck for the next several quarters, especially as regional differences start to make more of an impact. The bigger question will be what happens to companies like Asus and Acer, which have historically focused on lower-end consumer products (and often in developing markets), all of which are facing very difficult times. While predictions of continued market consolidation have been made many times in the past (and then not occurred), it does seem that things could be difficult for these companies as time moves on.

Here's a link to the column:https://techpinions.com/friday-roundup/unpacking-this-weeks-news-april-14-2016

Bob O’Donnell is the president and chief analyst of TECHnalysis Research, LLC a market research firm that provides strategic consulting and market research services to the technology industry and professional financial community. You can follow him on Twitter @bobodtech.